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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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